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GLOOMY PICTURE OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
Recent media focus is emphasizing more on the
Corruption Perception Index (CPI) rather than
the more important and statistically robust
indicator Human Development Index (HDI). CPI is
a quantitative measure of some qualitative
surveys of perceptions that can be subjected to
what people actually think rather than what
actually is; people in different countries can
define corruption very differently. Another
problem is due to lack of information CPI uses
different data from sources for different
countries making country to country comparison
susceptible to criticism.
Let us imagine a number that is averaged over
millions, perhaps, billions of numbers whose
minor change can impact the lives of millions. A
single number based on facts instead of
perceptions that takes into account peoples
health, education and living standard all
together and holds an indication of where a
country is heading for the future. The United
Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) for a
country is based on a Score computed from three
leading indicators: long healthy life,
achievement of knowledge and living standard.
These factors are measured by life expectancy at
birth, literacy rate and school enrollment and
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita adjusted
for purchasing power (PPP). Unlike CPI, HDI is
much more robust and more objectively measured
and it allows for year to year comparison. All
these measures are defined the same way in all
countries allowing for reliable worldwide
comparisons. This HDI Score is the average of
millions of numbers and hardly fluctuates unless
there is real change on the ground.
Change to any of the above three factors will
impact the score and determine a country's
relative ranking in the index. From the UNDP's
HDI trend data it is possible to compare a
country's past and present and get a sense of
where the country is heading in the future.
While the current score and ranking in HDI is
important, it is more important to look at the
trend. The trend provides us with tools to
project where a country is heading. While there
are many discussions and analyses on the index,
the ranking it provided, few have looked at the
trend and future projections for the country. I
would like to look deeper into the trend itself
and graphically present the picture for a better
understanding of readers.
Data for Bhutan is not available and Maldives
and Sri Lanka are further ahead of these
countries presented below. So it will be more
reasonable to confine the comparison between
Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and India. As we see
from the graph, Bangladesh ended the year 1975
behind India and Pakistan but was ahead of
Nepal. By the end of 1990 however, Bangladesh
fell behind three other players and the
difference was even bigger with Nepal at the end
of 1995. Then something drastically changed
during 1996-2000 period, unusual among the four
players in the region as seen from the chart,
which pushed Bangladesh ahead of Nepal and
almost close to Pakistan. How much was the
improvement for these countries over the years?
The average annual percentage of improvement
over different periods as one can see the rate,
was close to 1 per cent during 1976-1980 and
stayed behind Pakistan during 1976-1990, the
whole period of military dictatorships, but was
gradually improving. Pakistan's rate fell well
behind while Bangladesh was able to improve at a
rate close to 1.5 per cent during1990-1995. Then
in 1996-2000 it jumped sharply over 2.1 per cent
that pushed Bangladesh's improvement ahead of
the region. In 2000 Bangladesh HD score stood
ahead of Nepal and was on the race to catch
Pakistan by 2002. Then in the period of
2001-2003 the rate for Bangladesh nose-dived
from 2.1 per cent annual improvement to 0.9 per
cent. Without going into any subjective bias and
politics behind it, just the rate of improvement
makes one call 1996-2000 the "golden era" and
"2001-2003" the "darkest era" (the second
darkest era was 1976-1980) in Bangladesh's human
development.
Two possible sets of factors might have
contributed to this plunge in HD improvement -
the global factors that are beyond our control
and the local factors that are solely in the
hands of Bangladesh. Global factors, like post
9/11 Western attitude, cannot explain much of
the plunge as this did not affect any other
country in the region including Pakistan. We
need to look deeper into internal factors and
ask ourselves: "what caused this abysmal
performance".
This minor difference in HD score has tremendous
implication on millions of lives. This could
mean millions falling behind the poverty line,
millions suffering from malnutrition, millions
not getting the education and millions dying
earlier. This plunge can reinforce itself
through social unrest, rise of religious
extremism, aggravated corruption and
criminalisation of the society, etc. A smart
nation will address its problems at the first
signs.
We need to ask ourselves: why Bangladesh
achieved tremendous improvement in Human
Development during 1996-2000 to overtake India,
Pakistan and Nepal. Why is Bangladesh facing
such drastic problems now? Do we feel the need
to seriously consider all possible reasons
rising above all partisan emotions? Do we feel
the necessity for reversing the deterioration
before everything falls apart and Bangladesh
ends up at the bottom of failed states index
before we are labelled as "the most corrupt
country" for another year?
-by Zakaria Khondker is a statistician.
He works for a Biotech company in South San
Francisco, California.
Drawing on relaxed TRIPs accord
Behind every invention and enterprise is an
intellectual effort and the western societies
have long given recognition to the contribution
of intellect to the development of new
industrial products by way of granting the
patent right to the inventor of a product or the
method to produce it. The industries in the
advanced west invest huge sums of money in the
field of research and development (R&D) of new
products. Naturally, as soon as a new industrial
commodity hits the production line, the
competitors in the market try to duplicate the
product by fair means or foul. To discourage
such copying, which is tantamount to stealing
the product of hard labour of others, the
industrially advanced countries have evolved the
necessary legal framework to discourage the
duplication of new industrial products in
violation of the copyright laws.
While it is necessary that the laws to protect
intellectual property rights be strictly
followed in the advanced countries, the same
rule may not apply in the case of the least
developed countries (LDC). That is because the
fledgling industries in the LDCs like Bangladesh
cannot simply afford to invest big money in R&D
of new products. But if the laws to protect
intellectual property rights are strictly
enforced on them, too, like in the industrially
advanced countries, then most of the Third World
countries will be deprived of their access to
the vital commodities necessary for their
survival and growth.
Medicine, for example, is one such area where
the wholesale application of the Trade Related
Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) may spell
doom for the public health as well as the
pharmaceutical industries of the LDCs. That is
precisely the reason that the LDCs have been
given the time until the year, 2016, under the
exemption clauses relating to this particular
pharmaceutical sector. The scenario is not
different for other industrial goods such as IT
products, capital machinery and many other kinds
of manufactured goods that the LDCs are still
not in a position to produce on their own right
at the moment.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) had earlier
exempted the LDCs from complying with the strict
obligations of the TRIPs agreement for a period
of 10 years. On December 31 of this year, the
exemption time will expire. Unfortunately, the
countries covered by the WTO’s provision of
exemption are yet to graduate themselves from
the status of LDCs. Understandably, Zambia, the
present coordinator of LDCs, has submitted a
proposal to the TRIPs council to extend the
exemption period for another 15 years. It is
hoped that WTO, especially the members of this
global trade body representing the industrially
advanced countries, will be able to realise the
limitations of the LDCs in this respect as the
latter are still engaged in an uneven war with
poverty, hunger, natural calamities and other
kinds of vulnerabilities.
However, there is also no scope of making light
the responsibilities of the industrially
advanced countries in this respect. True the
LDCs need a breathing space before they can
catch up with the advanced countries on the
issue of TRIPs. But the latter also need to help
the former in earnest through technology
transfer and other means such as incentives so
that the LDCs’ transition to the status of
developing countries or to a still higher level
is accomplished rather smoothly. The LDCs are
also faced with the no less difficult task of
revamping their own legal system in conformity
with the copyright laws of the advanced
countries. Among the LDCs, Bangladesh enjoys a
unique position in that some of its industries
like textiles can gainfully take advantage of
the asked-for exemption period for TRIPs. Unlike
India, China and other members of the developing
countries, Bangladesh can make immediate use of
the relaxed rules for LDCs in the case of
certain industrial products protected under the
patent rights of TRIPs, export those to
different markets and, in the process, graduate
itself rapidly to its desired status under the
WTO within a short time.
Handloom industry
Handloom industry that provides for millions is
now in a deplorable state. Hundreds of artisans
are leaving the profession and thousand others,
are surviving after a grim battle with small
incomes. The third handloom census, conducted by
the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics in 2003 and
published recently, depicts a sordid picture of
weavers switching over to other professions and
their number has gradually declined over the
years.
Handloom industry, one of the major components
of the textile sector, is a 'life-blood' to a
community of people who have lived on this
enterprise through ages. The industry is next
only to agriculture in creating employment in
rural areas. More than 10 million people are
linked directly or indirectly with the sector.
Goods produced by the sector also help the
country to earn precious foreign exchange. There
is considerable scope for greater utilisation of
the fabrics produced by the handloom sector.
Fabrics known as Grameen Check, Dhaka Check and
Aarong Check are already being produced by the
handloom sector and used in the RMG industries.
Previously, similar fabrics used to be imported
from India. Caps, 'lungis', 'gamchas', bedsheets
and bedcovers produced by the handloom sector
are now being exported to some Middle Eastern
and South East Asian countries.
But proper attention is not paid to the sector.
Due to various reasons, 38 per cent of the
country's handlooms have ceased operation. The
country has nearly 500,000 handlooms out of
which 200,000 are not in operation mainly
because of lack of credit in over 90 per cent of
the cases. Even the handlooms in operation face
the problem of working capital. Some specialised
institutions are extending credit to the
handloom industry, but the availability of such
credit is meagre. The terms and conditions of
such credit are not useful for the weavers who
are required to service their debts regularly
with rate of interest as high as 10 per cent
under a monthly payment system. Evidently, the
interest rate needs to be scaled down to 5.0 or
6.0 per cent and the mode of repayment made
flexible together with substantial increase in
the total amount of credit to be disbursed among
a much bigger number of borrowers to make a
positive impact.
The Bangladesh Handloom Board was earlier given
the authority that made it possible on its part
to enable the co-operatives of weavers and the
loom owners to directly import raw materials. In
turn this helped reduce the cost of production.
That facility is no more in existence and
weavers cannot earn a good profit margin after
procurement of raw materials locally from the
open market at high prices. The Handloom Board
did not give any clarification as to why such
facility to the weavers was withdrawn. It is, as
if, none is going to be accountable for this.
Thus, a review of the decision is crucial.
Black marketing of imported fabrics and
smuggling of the Indian handloom products also
create uneven competition for the local
handlooms. Steps by the government are urgently
required to squarely deal with these problems.
Many of the weavers cannot work steadily due to
irregular supplies of yarn, dyes, and chemicals
that they require. The primary reason for this
is that many of these producers are located in
places with poor access to transportation. Most
of these weavers obtain their raw materials from
brokers at their local levels. These brokers
gather money from many small-scale manufacturers
and travel to the urban centres to purchase the
required materials, which they then take back to
the weavers.
Unfortunately, not all of these brokers are very
experienced and some are dishonest. Those in the
handloom industry are very vulnerable; even a
minor problem such as a heavy rainfall might
prevent them from obtaining their raw materials
or selling their finished product. Handloom
sector needs an immediate redress of its
multi-pronged problems. The weavers need to be
saved from the ruins at any costs as they can
supply the cheap clothing to the country's
teeming millions.
Knitwear sector hit by yarn shortage
The knitwear sector is facing yarn crisis that
may cause lower- production leaving a threat to
export income. The overall productivity of
knitwear has dropped by nearly 10 per cent
during the last one month due to shortage of
yarn as well as increase of price in the local
market, knitwear sector sources said.
They said that the price of yarn shot up by 45
cents per kg within a spell of 25 days.
Currently, knitwear yarn sells in the local
market at US$2.65 per kg, up from $2.20 three
weeks ago. Meanwhile, the knitwear entrepreneurs
said uncertainty looms large in achieving the
export-earning target given to the knitwear
industry for the fiscal year 2005-06. Foreign
exchange earning target through knitwear sector
has been raised to $3.60 billion from last
fiscal year’s income of $2.81 billion.
Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters
Association (BKMEA) president, M Fazlul Hoque
earlier said that they could not accept fresh
orders from their foreign clients due to the
shortage and price-hike of yarn. Some exporters
have already lost their international buyers as
they will not be able to deliver the goods in
time.
BTMA Chairman, MA Awal observed, however, that
the price of yarn has not increased as much as
the BKMEA claimed. He pointed out that yarn
prices have increased in the global market,
forcing the Bangladeshi yarn manufacturers to
raise their rates as well. He also suggested the
knitwear exporters raise their product prices to
offset the impact of yarn-price hike.
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