Are we running out of oil?
Oil is a nonrenewable resource. We have not run out of oil because new technologies increase the amount of recoverable oil, and market prices — which signal scarcity — encourage new exploration and development.

The 1973 Arab oil embargo gave rise to renewed claims that the world’s oil supply would be exhausted shortly. The predictions of the 1970s were followed in a few years by a glut of cheap oil. Since then, rather than falling, world oil production continued to increase especially throughout the 1990s. Prices have not skyrocketed, suggesting that oil is not becoming more scarce.

When talking about oil, one needs to understand and differentiate between reserves and resources.
• Reserves are the portion of identified resources that can be economically extracted and exploited using current technology.
• Resources include all fuels, both identified and unknown, and constitute the world’s endowment of fossil fuels.
If oil reserves are divided by current production rates, exhaustion appears imminent. However, petroleum reserves are continually increased by ongoing exploration and development of resources. By the year 2000, a total of 900 billion barrels of oil had been produced. Total world oil production in 2000 was 25 billion barrels. Hence the world’s oil supply is unlikely to be exhausted before the year 2050 at the current level of reserves and the present consumption trend.

It is now possible to exploit oil resources that could not have been recovered with old technologies. Today’s drilling technology allows the completion of wells up to 30,000 feet (9,144 meters) deep. The vast petroleum resources of the world’s submerged continental margins are accessible from offshore platforms that allow drilling in water depths to 9,000 feet (2,743 meters). New techniques and new technology have increased the efficiency of oil exploration. The success rate for exploratory petroleum wells has increased 50 percent over the past decade.

No one can predict the future. Over the next several decades the world will continue to see short-term rise in the price of oil, but these will be caused by political instability and market interference and not by any irreversible decline in supply.

Oil futures break US$ 61
Oil futures settled above $61 a barrel and finished 40 percent higher than they started in 2005, capping a tough year for energy consumers but a great one for the petroleum industry as prices soared amid strong demand and tight supplies.
Many analysts believe the average price of oil will be below $60 in 2006, but not by much as U.S. and Chinese economic growth continues and OPEC members express growing interest in a production cut, perhaps as early as the first quarter.
While unthinkable just a few years ago, a price near $50 a barrel would actually be welcome news to energy-intensive industries such as airlines and trucking companies, who have retooled their operations to use fuel more efficiently.
The high price of fuel was a boon to major oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc. Their rising profits and stock prices caught the attention of the US Congress, which held hearings to implore the industry to boost production.
But oil analysts agree that the world's largest petroleum producers are pumping as much as they can to take advantage of the high price, leaving little excess production capacity available if there is a prolonged supply disruption. The mere threat of lost output, whether because of geopolitical strife in Nigeria or Iraq, or a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, will be enough to keep the market on edge in 2006.
In 2005, Nymex oil futures averaged $56.70, an increase of 37 percent from 2004, when they averaged $41.47. The price of Nymex crude is about 14 percent below its Aug. 30 high of $70.85. Oil prices remained above $60 a barrel for months after Katrina disrupted Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas output. About one-quarter of the region's daily oil production, and one-fifth of its natural gas production, remains offline, because of damage to offshore platforms, underwater pipelines and onshore processing plants.

Aviation sector awaits A380 effect
In 2005 the Airbus A380 finally took to the skies. Singapore Airlines will be the first to fly the new plane - it hopes later this year, barring any more delays in testing. There is a total of 159 "orders and commitments" for the massive new plane, though not all are for the passenger model, with the world's cargo operators keen to start using the freighter version, which is yet to fly.

The impact of the plane on world aviation has been debated for years. Airbus says it may have the same kind of effect as the introduction of the Boeing 747 in the late 1960s - dramatically lowering the cost of air travel. With the biggest single order for A380s among the world's airlines, there's every chance that a few of the 48 white and gold Emirates double-decked jumbo jets will be making the flight to New Zealand - tacked onto Australia-Dubai services.

Such a move will open up a rival direct route to Europe for travellers, who now travel via Asian hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong, or US cities such as Los Angeles. Dubai is now established as an alternative stopover destination for travelling to Europe. Emirates won an airline of the year award from one of the major aviation consultancies in the region, the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation.

Airline analyst at Goldman Sachs JB Were, Peter Sigley, says he is interested the kind of impact Emirates and the introduction of the A380 might have in this part of the world.